Serie A market values: Christian Pulisic returns to 2018 level - Rafael Leão drops by 17%

The Italian Serie A is the last of Europe’s top four leagues to receive an intermediary market value update. Altogether, Transfermarkt has updated the market values of 136 players in Italy’s first division. While Inter Milan’s Argentine striker Lautaro Martínez remains unchanged at the top with a market value of €110m, there has been some movement among the top players, with AC Milan’s Rafael Leão no longer occupying the second spot. But while the Portuguese winger dropped in market value, his teammate Christian Pulisic got rewarded for his strong start to the season. 

“After a strong first season in Italy, Pulisic has made another big step forward this season and for now has taken over the role of the club’s biggest star from Leão,” Transfermarkt Area Manager Italy Jatin Dietl said. “Directly involved in eight goals across nine games, only Lautaro and Marcus Thuram had more direct goal involvements since Pulisic arrived in Italy.” Consequently, Pulisic saw his market value increase by 25% from €40m to €50m, his highest market value since December 2018 and just €10m shy of his personal best. His new market value also makes Pulisic the most valuable player in Concacaf together with Canadian men’s national team star Alphonso Davies (overview).

While Pulisic is headed in the right direction, the opposite is true for Leão. “Leão’s form curve has been trending downwards for some time now,” Dietl said. “Occasionally, you can see his qualities, but he has struggled to be consistent. Furthermore, the market for him has cooled down, and aged 25, Leão seems to lack the maturity that has made Pulisic a standout player this season.” With the demand dropping for the Portuguese winger, the €90m market value was no longer justified and, as a result, Leão dropped by 17% to €75m. The Portuguese now ranks behind Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Napoli) and Nicolò Barella (Inter Milan), remaining unchanged at €80m in third place among Serie A’s most valuable players. 

Serie A market values: Juve talents on the up – Retegui among biggest winners

Meanwhile, at Juventus, two big talents continue to make a big name for themselves. First and foremost, Kenan Yıldız: the 19-year-old Turkish playmaker continues to impress with his development and saw his market value increase by 33% to €40m. “Yildiz has taken over the no.10 shirt at Juventus this season, and there have already been comparisons to Alessandro del Piero,” Dietl said. “But the young Turkish star seems unfazed by the comparisons, scoring a wonder goal in the Champions League against PSV and generally showing fantastic performances. Juventus have slated him in as the key player in their attack for many years to come.” 

Yıldız isn’t the only super talent who has made a name for himself at Juve this season. Belgian winger Samuel Mbangula might be one of the breakout talents in Europe thus far this season. “He is the big surprise at Juventus,” Dietl said. “Because Gonzálz and Conceição were only signed in the dying days of the transfer window, Thiago Motta was forced to improvise, playing the young Belgian winger despite struggling with injuries while being with the U23 last season. But Mbangula has made most of the opportunity and, after being directly involved in three goals in his first two games, has become a big part of the first team. Mbangula convinces with his speed and ability to beat opponents in tight spaces.” The 20-year-old forward is perhaps the biggest winner of the update seeing his market value increase by 3100% from €250k to €8m. 

Also among the big winners is new Atalanta forward Mateo Retegui, who saw his market value improve by 75% from €16m to €28m. The Italian forward, with Argentine roots, was signed from Genoa for €22m this summer and has been an instant success for the Bergamo-based club. “After a poor European Championship this summer, many were surprised about his transfer fee,” Dietl said. “But Atalanta reacted quickly to the injury of star striker Scamacca and never doubted Retegui’s qualities. And they were right. The investment paid off as Retegui scored seven goals in seven games, as many as the entire last season. The move also seems to have helped his performances in the national team, where he scored twice and had one assist in his last four games.”

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees. 

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).