Will miss the season with ACL injury - Is Rodri the irreplaceable cog in Man City’s machinery?

Supporters of other Premier League clubs have long been trying to manufacture reasons for a Manchester City fall off or drop in form, but any adversity Pep Guardiola’s team do face, usually gets shrugged off with little impact, as his winning machine of a team continues to deliver trophies. But right now there are certainly signs that not all is well at the Etihad. Two defeats in a row and six goal conceded in those two losses. A trip to an in-form Brighton will be another tricky task for an injury-depleted Man City this Saturday.

When Guardiola first arrived at City, people questioned whether his 'tiki-taka’ style of football was suited to the Premier League - Man City were soon churning out trophies on English shores. When Man City had no striker before signing Erling Haaland, people said you can’t win a league without a recognised centre-forward - Phil Foden, İlkay Gündogan and Raheem Sterling chipped in and City lifted the Premier League trophy. When it was announced Kevin De Bruyne was injured and would miss around half of last season, people claimed that could be the boost for Arsenal or Liverpool to wrestle the title away from the Sky Blues - Man City made it four titles in a row.

But one player that this current Man City team potentially can’t cope without is their midfield hub - Rodri. The Spaniard recently won last season's Ballon d'Or. Potentially far more damaging than the two points dropped against Arsenal back in September, was the moment their defensive midfielder limped off the pitch, with what soon after was confirmed as an ACL injury that will rule the Spaniard out for the entire season. That injury came just a week after Rodri had suggested a potential player strike due to too many matches being played. Man City's record with and without Rodri speaks volumes, and the level of skill and football intelligence to play his role within this City team, makes him a very hard man to replace. At the moment his absence is noticeable. Man City succumbed to lose 4-1 to Sporting in the Champions League, just days after being beaten at Bournemouth.

Why Rodri is so important to Man City

Last season Man City lost just three Premier League games - Rodri missed all three of those matches due to suspension. The Sky Blues were unbeaten, in both the Premier League and the Champions League (within 90 minutes), with the former Atletico Madrid midfielder in their starting eleven last season. He is simply instrumental to the frightening rhythm and tempo Guardiola’s team creates, and without him, something isn’t quite right.

Kalvin Phillips was brought in as the Spaniard’s understudy in the 2022 summer transfer window for €49 million, but never looked comfortable when deputising for Rodri, and didn't appear to have the faith and trust of his manager. He is on loan at Ipswich this season after a disastrous loan to West Ham last term. Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovacic have both been trialled in a deeper role in Rodri’s absence, but don’t seem to have the natural defensive instinct for the position, and look more comfortable higher up the pitch. Guardiola has even experimented with natural centre-halves John Stones and Manuel Akanji in the holding role. But no one has been able to get anywhere near replicating the levels of calmness, control and cohesion that Rodri ensures. 

As illustrated in the graphic above, the fall off Man City suffer without Rodri in the side since the 2022/23 season is monumental.  The club's win-rate drops from 77.8% to 57%, while the loss-rate sky rockets from just 5.6% with Rodri in the team, to 43% without the Spaniard. The sample size may only be 14 games without Rodri, but the numbers are obvious enough to emphasise City's centre-midfielder's influence on the team. City also score more and concede less with Rodri in the XI. 

Rodri completed the most passes from all the players in the Premier League last season. His record of 3,633 was far ahead of the next primary midfielder on the list in Bruno Gumiarães on 2,264 completed passes. He makes Man City’s superstars tick. Given the 28 year old's ability to be the foundation and start attacks, he could be forgiven for not having any goal involvements, but he contributes in that regard as well more than you might think. Rodri scored eight goals and provided nine assists in 34 Premier League games last term. 

Last October, before Man City's top of the table clash with Arsenal at the Emirates, which they ultimately lost without Rodri in the team, Guardiola said, “[Rodri is] maybe the best, or in the top two or three best, holding midfielders in the world. When you have an absence as important as him you have to have a solution. I am not going to deny how important Rodri is, like how Kevin [De Bruyne] is, but when they are not here we cannot start to cry. The moment in my mind when a player is not there, he is completely out and I don’t think about it. He is not there.” With Rodri now set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines, Guardiola will be racking his brains as to how he is going to fill the void left from his top midfielder's absence.